Bitcoin Mining Break-even Price: A Transparent Model

Estimate the network share

A miner's expected share is miner hash rate divided by network hash rate. Multiply that share by expected blocks per day and block revenue.

Block subsidy changes at halvings. Transaction fees vary by block, so a fixed fee assumption must remain visible.

Mined BTC/day = (Subsidy + Tx Fees per Block) × 144 × Hash Share × Uptime

Deduct pool and power costs

Pool fees reduce BTC revenue. Wall power and actual uptime determine electricity cost. Hardware depreciation belongs in a separate profitability line.

Electricity/day = Watts ÷ 1000 × 24 × USD/kWh × Uptime
Break-even BTC Price = Electricity/day ÷ Net BTC/day

Expected value is not a payout promise

PPS, FPPS and PPLNS change payout variance and timing. Pool luck, stale shares, cooling, firmware, difficulty and BTC price can change actual results.